Will the theremin be extinct 100 years from now ?

Ok -

This actually has nothing to do with the theremin at all..

I posted this on the theremini thread as an OT - but removed it because Im trying to behave! ;-)  ...

I dont think the theremin will survive another 100 years, because I think it unlikely that the human race will survive that long..

I posted this about 5 years ago on Element 14:

http://www.element14.com/community/people/FredM/blog

The numbers I read in the following  article were unbelievable, so I checked them:

http://www.alternet.org/environment/giant-methane-monster-lurking

Either the figures of past methane output was wrong, or there has been such a massive increase that there can only be one reasonable explanation in my mind - positive feedback..

All the facts I can dig up from publicly available sources, for the last 5 years, lead me to think we are well on the way to an extremely rapid meltdown - that we may as well throw away all the published predictions based on models that dont account for the methane factor - we dont have 100 years, we might not even have 20 years... We might just have time to grab a towel and try to hitch a lift from a passing Vogon..

Fred.

The facts are sobering for sure.  The methane monster is soon to be unleashed as the tundras thaw and rot.

But a threat that is even more likely to wipe us out before climate change is EMP (electromagnetic pulse) either from a mass solar emission like the Carrington event in 1899 or a terrorist attack. Either way the electrical grid could be down for years.  Read the novel "One Second After" by William Forstchen....it scared the crap out of me!   It is estimated that up to a half million could die immediately in airplanes falling out of the sky.  Ten percent of the population dependent on medical technology could perish in the first couple weeks.  Next you would have hungry mobs after any food that you may have in your home and supermarkets would be cleaned out in a day.  Any car, truck or train built after the early 70's would not run due to fried electronics.  Food would rot in wherehouses and dry up in the fields. There would be no water or sanitation resulting in the outbreak of disease and plagues.  No fire department, no EMT, no police. Imagine how many would perish within days in the hot southwest or the northern states in the wintertime! Within the first year with our current society so dependent on electricity up to 90% of the population could be dead.  Solar events like the Carrington  occur about every 75 years so we are way past due. 

A terrorist would only have to detonate a Hiroshima sized bomb high in the atmosphere that could be launched from a container ship in the Gulf of Mexico taking out most of the United States.

All of the major transformers that keep our grid up and running are now manufactured in China on a "need now" basis and could not be replaced for over 20 years. 

Worst of all this could all be prevented at a minimal cost by hardening our grid against EMP but our lawmakers in Washington are more concerned with more important matters like whether or not the "Redskins" should keep their name.

Maybe worse still.....no more theremins!  

Doom Doom Doom... ;-)

There are two issues here I think...

"Worst of all this could all be prevented at a minimal cost by hardening our grid against EMP" - bisem ...

This, to me, falls into the category of "insurance".

Is insurance worth spending money on? - Well, sometimes - It all depends on risk vs cost. Risk in this case is loss of life and social order, and cost is low, so its insane IMO that EMP hardening is not implemented. It a bit like ESD protection on theremins - Risk of dysfunction leading to expensive repair is moderate, but risk to life is zero.. Cost of protection is cents, so I think its worth fitting..

Then there is insurance that costs a lot and doesn't seem worth it UNLESS you are extremely unlucky - I have spent over my lifetime probably £200k on insurance I was compelled to buy (property, public liability etc) for which I haven't made a single claim - I could buy a house with that money, outright... However, if a property had burnt down or something I designed had caused someone injury, they would have paid out (never been in a position to test that theory, thankfully! ;-)

The second type of "category" is, to me, somewhat different - Its when one has a house but are not looking after it - its falling to pieces structurally, and will collapse soon unless Major work and expense is committed to its restoration. The occupants of this house have no other possible home, and when the house falls, they and their children will all die within years..

But 10% of the occupants, under direction of 1%, are forcing the other occupants to pull away anything of worth from the buildings structure, and selling this stuff to fund their drug habit.. They are accelerating the deterioration of the home everyone lives in (albeit they have the best rooms in this home, so tend to be extremely comfortable) - And they give those who bully and abuse the other occupants a tiny share of their drugs..

Fred.

The theremin extinct in a hundred years? We may have already arrived as I argued with my doctor who said bend over so I can do a digital exam. When he was done I would argue again that... that was Anal og. Is the culture being mislead by the experts? Call anything a theremin that makes noise! I mentioned to an old friend, I had not seen in many years, about my collection of theremins, immediately he pulled out his cell phone and was running his finger over it squealing away. I dropped the theremin subject because I knew I could not compete with his proud demonstration.

T

" I dropped the theremin subject because I knew I could not compete with his proud demonstration." - Touchless

LOL ;-)

Following is probably completely irrelevant - but I had to paste it!  ;-)

(the above was from http://www.muffwiggler.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=488&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=210)

Insurance?  Insurance is something you buy to avoid the cost of something that may possibly happen. EMP and annihilation of our society as we know it is certain if we don't take steps to protect ourselves.  What we are doing now is driving a car downhill with bad breaks.  Fix the breaks first and you will be able to avoid disaster. That isn't insurance....that is good common sense to avoid the inevitable.  One other aspect of our electrical grid going down is nuclear power plants.  What happened in Fukushima would happen many hundreds of times over on the planet without electricity to cool all those reactor cores. The only positive outcome of a solar flare taking out most of the human population is that is will have the most positive effect possible on global warming.

It is estimated that it would take about $400 for each American tax payer to pay for the power grid upgrades. Interesting that this has not aroused any significant interest on this thread.  It is the same when I talk to anyone about it.  After about 2 minutes of listening people here in Pittsburgh change the subject to sports.

Bisem,

You are of course absolutely right - its not "insurance", it is "common sense"... I did look up the issue (spent a couple of hours going over it) and it does seem astounding that almost no attention is being paid to the issue..

The "After about 2 minutes of listening.. " isnt just Pittsburgh, its global - And there is a reason for this I think.. Its that people feel powerless - its easier to switch to some meaningless distraction than to be faced with a major issue (in evolutionary terms, an issue that should cause a fight-or-flight reaction) that one is (or feels) utterly impotent on.

And I understand this - its the reaction animals have when faced with inevitable doom - Shutdown.

Because we are in complete system overload - on every level, including personal / psychological.

You say "It is estimated that it would take about $400 for each American tax payer to pay for the power grid upgrades" - So lets say this was passed... That one inevitable disaster is avoided... But there's still the methane, there's still the massive earthquake that will one day take out the entire (eastern?) coast of the USA / Canada and send tsunamis that will eradicate most high density cities in its wake..

Meltdown of the methane and run-away global warming is inevitable, and $400 is peanuts to what any action to reduce the risk will cost - Folks feel like they are struggling now (and many are) - They dont want to hear it.

I dont want to hear it - I want someone to show me any argument that gives me hope that I have got it wrong.. Perhaps I post stuff like this more for that reason than for any other. I wish I could be like those who can get distracted by sport or whatever (I suppose I distract myself with delusions of making the ultimate musical instrument, LOL ;-) - its probably a lot less scary to be dazzled by the headlights moments before the truck hits, than to see it coming but be unable to move.

 Fred.

You're right no one wants to hear it.  We are the only two left on this post.  The Theremini is of more concern. Like you said the jury isn't out on that thing yet.  It is what it is so let's wait for more people who have actually purchased one to chime in.  I think one thing is for sure and that is that we won't see Thorwald Jorgensen playing Bach on it anytime soon...LOL!

I am at least going to compose a letter to send to my local representatives.  I forget which state but there is one that is looking into hardening their electrical grid right now and perhaps once that happens we can get the ball rolling.  Yes the methane and global warming may still kill us in our lifetime but maybe we can dodge the bullet of EMP annihilation and feel that we did something to help before we have the luxury die a natural death. 

Bisem,

This is the answer!

I am ordering my supply today!  I want the Minus 50 strength.