Hi Dewster,
Yeah - I am in the same 'state' as you, $40k would be enough to keep me at tickover for a couple of years - and the " cottage industry " basis is the only realistic one for theremins I guess..
My evaluation is that its the sub "feet wet crowd" where the only real money might exist - IF there is a "large" market, its in the sub £100 ($161) or perhaps sub £150 zone - And there are a few theremins (LV-3 and Burns for example) within this zone - I doubt that the combined income from those gets anywhere close to what any investor would be interested in, even if the newcomer grabbed the entire market! - its the "toy" end, where little care and minimal time to calibrate / check etc is required, that the biggest markup can probably be made - and the largest volumes sold.. things which make unplayable noises as hands get near to them.
Its not just about designing and producing - its also about marketing and supporting.. Most of the sub £100 rubbish is probably impulse buy, and if people dont like what theyve bought they are likely to forget it.. Not so much the case I think above £150 - Above a 'line' somewhere 'round there, one needs good marketing and good reputation (which takes time) and a good support network.
And all the above is expensive and will eat into whatever pennies one manages to make.
I think you can engineer a digital theremin as good or better than equivalently priced analogue theremins - but suspect that quite a large % of potential purchasers will be more cautios about buying yours at the prices you are proposing - simply because, as you have rightly (IMO) highlighted, the digital stuff to date has been (again, IMO) horrible - I, for one, would be really worried about spending my money on a digital theremin instead of buying say an EW IF I didnt know the technical abilities of the designer - So I would (at this time) only buy one from you ;-) .. but im not in the market for a theremin ;-) ... One of my main reasons for me staying inclined to analogue is the knowledge that I could get into it and change things - this aint so easy if theres one chip inside that does everything...
I think its a really small pond, and there are two main groups of fish in it - those who will eat anything as long as its cheap, and those with 'better' taste - but those with 'better' taste dont have anything they all like - they are a fussy lot, some with crazy predudices and ideas .. So whatever one wants to "feed" them, there will only be a tiny number in this small pond who will be interested... The question is, are there enough in any group in the pond to make producing something for them commercialy viable - even for a cottage industry?
I suspect the answer is no - But this wont stop us, will it ?!
;-)
Fred.
ps .. There is one other group I forgot to mention, and it may be quite large (compared say to those interested in really high-end theremins for example) - these are the DIY / Hobbyist / EE Enthusiasts / Kit builders etc.. I think that both analogue and digital theremins are food for this group - They are (possibly) more interested in the technology and learning / playing with this, than they are in the musical attributes of the technology (although some may be upset by this statement, and some will have musical interest and aspirations as their primary motivation)
pps .. The Tvox is a great instrument, and what I say here is absolutely no attempt to denegrate it or dishonor it or its designer in any way...
But I do wonder whether if someone else had built it, without the huge boost to its exposure given by it being Lydia's theremin, it would have been so well known and respected.
The fact that even with this boost (marketing / reputation) and its massive exposure on youtube etc, its designer has no interest in a repeat performance and thinks that even a run of 100 might be difficult to clear, to me speaks volumes..
How many Tvox, produced by some newcomer, would have sold? I think they came to market at about £800 (but this is just something I heard, could be entirely wrong..) .. How many Evox or E-Pro's sold over their first year after production started? - and they were from Bob Moog!
The numbers arent good -