Theremin drop out rate...

What do you all think about the theremin drop out rate is?
What is the driving factor of dropping out from learning the theremin?

out of 100 people that start, how many you think will drop out, and out of that number how many do you think will be "making a name for themselves" in the theremin community?

Just curious what are your take on it...

Put me in the drop-out category.  Got my EWS kit, assembled it, showed it to some friends and piano students, then it pretty much just sat there until I packed it away about a year later.  It made for a great conversation piece though.

I believe the majority of people who take up any instrument end up dropping it before attaining a level of mastery.  For the Theremin I think the drop-out percentage is probably quite higher than for most other instruments.  If the instrument is more complete (i.e. can be used to play melody & accompaniment and at the same time, like piano or guitar) then the chances of someone sticking with it increase because the player can improve without the need for other players to participate in their practice.

My wild and extremely uneducated guess would be 1/100 actually become good Theremin players.

dewster said: "My wild and extremely uneducated guess would be 1/100 actually become good Theremin players."

Dropout rate of players whether good or bad I would say 999 out of 1000. In time we will all drop out so that is 100%.

The above numbers would not be so severe if the engineer ratio of drop out wasn't so high, remember this instrument is by invitation, the rest she plays mental games with. LOL

The dropout rate is very high. Of all the people I met at the 1997 THEREMIN FESTIVAL in Portland, Maine, only two or three (including yers trooly) are still with the instrument. Most lost interest years ago, including the founder of the Levnet!

As for "making a name for yourself in the theremin community" that is an entirely different question and it has nothing to do with how well you play. It has far more to do with networking, traveling, etc. The "community" is a loose association of hobbyists and technical enthusiasts and, unlike traditional musical instruments, there is no such thing as a full time, professional THEREMINIST. Consequently, the musical standards of the theremin community are not very high. 

Based on people I know, which is a small sample set, Id estimate the drop out rate is around 90% after a year. It also depends on the definition of dropping out, people have different goals, but if we define not dropping out as sticking with it for at least two years, and performing publicly in some way, which seems a minimum threshold, id still say 90% minimum.

I think the main reason is the first 3-6 months of learning the theremin is frustrating, with a steep learning curve. There is no instant gratification, it is difficult enough to play a scale or a simple melody.

Probably 1% or less, become good players, that make a name for themselves, or what have you, but that is true of any instrument mostly. Probably far less than 1% of people who pick up a guitar become classically trained famous musicians, 80% are probably sitting around a campfire 10 years later, playing the same covers of 4 chord songs. But you wouldn't say they dropped out, necessarily. But you dont have most people who buy theremins breaking out their instrument at parties 5 years later to play somewhere over the rainbow for their guests.

If you wanted a closer estimate to an exact percentage, you could take the number of etherwaves manufactured and divide by the number of thereminists you can find, times some fudge factor for the ones who have no web presence.

"If you wanted a closer estimate to an exact percentage, you could take the number of etherwaves manufactured and divide by the number of thereminists you can find" -nieradka

Does anyone have any clue about this figure? It is fairly easy to get some figures on the more 'pro' instruments - instruments like the Tvox, Epro and rarer beasts - but I have not been able to get any accurate data on sales of the EW, which must be several orders of magnitude greater than any other theremin.

I strongly suspect that the "drop out" rate is a lot higher than 90%, and if one includes the many "toy" "teheremins" in the figures, I would thing 99% ending up being unused would be likely..

But - There is one thing which surprises me and would seem to indicate that I might be wrong in the above.. If most people who buy an EW give up within say a couple of years, I would expect to see more second-hand instruments on sale (Ebay etc) - The EW is expensive enough that I would expect people to sell them if they dont use them.

So perhaps people arent "dropping out" - Perhaps they are just keeping their instruments (and what they do with them) behind closed doors, away from public scrutiny, for their own private pleasure.

Fred. 

So perhaps people arent "dropping out" - Perhaps they are just keeping their instruments (and what they do with them) behind closed doors, away from public scrutiny, for their own private pleasure.

Fred.

Well said. Once owned the theremin might appear as that kind of gem one is likely to sell as last item if money matters. Be it played in any way, be it a dust catcher. Otherwise i simply cannot understand that even toy theremins won´t pop up too often as second hand offer.

I believe that by the time Bob Moog died in 2005 a total of about 10,000 Etherwave theremins (mostly kits) had been sold. Since then perhaps a few thousand more have been purchased but I suspect that the advent of ebay and the availability of used Etherwaves cut into new product sales quite a bit. 

My guess is that no more than a total of 12 or 13 thousand have been sold since the company began. That's damn good business considering the instrument is relatively unknown and difficult to play. In the meantime, Bob brought Clara Rockmore out of retirement and managed to put the theremin back on the musical map.

Don't forget, on top of everything the late Dr. Bob did for the theremin, he also revolutionized the world of electronic music and gave us a number of wonderful devices and inventions unrelated to the theremin.

By the above count, this means a little over 1000 EW's sold per year (averaged over 10 years 1996 to 2005)

Lets say for simplicity that 1200 / year was the total sale of all "respectable" theremins (I am excluding obvious low-cost toys) - that is 100 new potential thereminists per month.

If there was a high drop-out rate, I would expect to see a resonable percentage of the more expensive theremins appearing on the second-hand market - but less than 10% seems to (we dont have 10 S/H EW's or Burns on Ebay each month, I dont think..)

So, perhaps the drop-out rate is a lot lover than we think..

Fred

To come up with a dropout statistic is difficult -- there are many people who utilize the theremin who have no on-line presence.